The information
ecosystem around Covid-19 (aka Coronavirus) is dense and riddled with both
apathy and hyperbole, and attempts by civic authorities to cut through the
social media noise and achieve that delicate balance which encourages alertness
and preparation without inciting panic have been, at best, only partially
successful. Supermarket shelves are
being rapidly emptied by folks preparing their bunker for a 6 month apocalypse
(please don’t). On the flipside, I hear
so many people dismissing worries over the virus as a media beatup, it’s “the
same as a cold”, or “driven by anti-Asian racism”.
All of this
is so very frustrating, and I appreciate it’s hard to know what to believe with
all of this flying around, so without telling anyone how worried or not worried
they ought to be, I thought it might be helpful to share some of the basic
facts as they stand.
There
are several key metrics experts use to determine the risk profile of an
epidemic. One is its reproduction number – its “R0” value – an estimate of, on
average, how many other people will be infected by one carrier of the disease. Measles,
for example, has an R0 of between 12 and 18, which is very high. The various
forms of Influenza, on the other hand, have an average R0 of between 2 and 3.
There
are a number of difficulties involved in reliably determining the R0 of
Covid-19 at this point. Firstly, for most infected, the earliest symptoms won’t
differ significantly from those associated with a common cold or flu, and some
will recover without intervention before it gets any worse than that. Secondly,
it’s possible that those without symptoms (yet) can carry the virus and pass it
onto others. We can only estimate the R0 based on number of diagnoses, which is
unreliable, and only made more difficult by the differences between health
systems and reporting practices across different countries.
Most models place
the R0 of Covid-19 at somewhere between 1.4 and 3.8, and it seems to be
settling, for now, at around 2.2, similar to flu. This could still change
significantly, but there’s good reason to think it’s probably about right –
namely, that sequencing of the virus has shown that it’s fairly closely related
to the virus which caused the 2002-2003 SARS outbreak, which also has an R0 in
that range.
Another
key metric is the case mortality rate –
what percentage of people infected with the virus are killed by it. Again, hard
to know for sure for the same reasons it’s hard to know the R0. So far though,
the best guess is that around 2% of diagnosed cases have resulted in death.
That might sound low, but it’s twenty times higher than influenza’s mortality
rate of 0.1% – which kills somewhere between about 300,000 and 650,000 people
per year, at a similar estimated R0.
If,
in the worst case scenario, Covid-19 becomes established globally as a regular
seasonal infection.. well, you do the math. Yeah, it ain’t good. While there
are at least 20 vaccines in development internationally, this could take
months, and the further the virus spreads the more mutations we will see which
a single vaccine may not be able to deal with.
Panicking,
however, is not going to help. We know that communities that beat pandemics are
ones that pull together, share resources and cooperate. When people freak out,
spread misinformation, or stampede to stockpile for the apocalypse, they only
increase risks for themselves and others. Remember that the vast majority of
people, especially healthy adults, who get Covid-19 and seek medical attention
early will be absolutely fine. Every one of us can play a role in reducing
risk. Practice good hygiene, wash your hands properly and regularly, use
sanitiser if you have it, disinfect surfaces like keyboards/mice or food preparation
areas regularly, ensure (where possible) that you’re set up to work from home if
it becomes necessary or otherwise have a plan if you can’t work for a while (good
employers will generally offer paid discretionary leave in such circumstances
but if you’re a contractor or casual this can be trickier), minimise use of public
transport, avoid densely-crowded spaces and events if you can, make sure you
have a week or so’s worth of surplus supplies but DO NOT PANIC BUY (society is
not going to come to a standstill and hoarding bunker-loads of stuff is only
going to deprive others), and – as should be really freaking obvious – IF YOU
ARE SICK, STAY HOME, keep your damn germs to yourself and contact your doctor as
soon as possible.
Symptom-wise, Covid-19
will generally give you a gnarly fever and mess with your lungs – causing cough,
shortness of breath and/or sore throat. If you have those particular symptoms,
it is probably wise to call in advance rather than just showing up to your GPs
office. That goes a hundredfold if you’ve been travelling recently (or been in close contact with someone who has).
Keep
in mind that as of 3rd March, there has only been one confirmed case in Aotearoa.
While the official Ministry of Health advice still ranks the risk of a
widespread outbreak as low-moderate, evidence and the experience of other
countries suggests that it is likely we’ll see community transmission at some point over
the coming days or weeks.
Here's a really good piece from Dr Siouxsie Wiles on how to prepare your household:
Here's a really good piece from Dr Siouxsie Wiles on how to prepare your household:
You can also check the WHO website for updates and guidance on how to keep yourself and others safe as poss:
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